Share your opinions and experiences on Stock Trading.
4/7/2008 4:43:05 AM
global_ronin
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Solar stocks have made a comeback in the past week, with some movement towards passing updated renewable energy legislation in the US. Many of these moved more than 10% on Friday, and are still 30-40% below their December highs, and with high short interest levels.
I am long term bullish on solar stocks, but I would treat these as short term trading positions, unless you are willing to deal with the volatility (and perhaps sell options to profit from it).
FSLR SPWR STP ESLR YGE JASO LDK HOKU ENER
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4/7/2008 1:09:17 PM
global_ronin
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A couple more - SOLF CSIQ
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4/7/2008 11:03:11 PM
lambro
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Global what charts are you looking at to take your long term bullish stance?
Sounds like you might be morphing a fundamental concept into your analysis...
correct me if I misread that
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4/8/2008 4:20:08 AM
global_ronin
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lambro, you're right, I'm starting with a long term trend view of energy and alternative energy. There is a lot of hype and politics around solar, since there's a combination of public policy, media coverage, momentum trading, and actual substance in this sector.
Because they tend to trade on hype and emotions rather than fundamentals, technical trades can work when they start moving. Many of the issues have relatively low float, high short interest, and a lot of retail ownership.
For longer term trades, selling covered calls into short covering rallies works well to extract volatility premium. Selling puts as a bid for a planned long entry can also work well. That mostly assumes a time frame of weeks to months, though, and it's easy for people to get in trouble selling puts if they don't understand their exposure.
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4/8/2008 9:38:11 PM
lambro
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thats dangerous because it gets people looking beyond rule based trading, not using stops etc, holding below trend line breaks etc., all for the cause of the companies mission, I see this all too often.
I never trade on fundamentals, and unless you have money to move markets, I do not reccomend it.
It falls into the discretionary category.
You an not test and prove fundamental aspects have a positive expectancy, but you can test technical set-ups and signals.
Be careful out there..good trading to you
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4/9/2008 4:39:10 AM
global_ronin
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I think making short term (or medium term) trades based solely on a fundamental outlook would be quite risky, but longer term trades (months/quarters/years) require different rules, not "no" rules.
Where I think it can be particularly confusing for people is when a trading vehicle and a long term position are the same company's stock. So in one portfolio you might have an allocation to one stock, based on long term investment case that changes relatively slowly, while in another portfolio you might be actively trading the same security on an intraday or swing trade basis. The risk management is different as well, for short term the emphasis is on qualifying specific entries and setting stops, for a longer time frame portfolio allocation and hedging become more important.
Oscar's work is geared towards the intraday trade and occasional overnight hold, but I also like the work he puts in on the longer term charts.
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4/9/2008 5:59:16 PM
lambro
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any long term position I take only becomes long term by proof in ongoing technical performance
once the dominant trend is done I'm out
fundamentals never enter the picture
http://i116.photobucket.com/albums/o12/lambro3/KOD331.jpg
http://i116.photobucket.com/albums/o12/lambro3/BSC324.jpg
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4/20/2008 10:48:15 PM
pacel5
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I am looking at SOLF and SPWR... but they look extended here.
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4/22/2008 3:51:30 AM
global_ronin
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If you want to pick up a basket of solar names instead of picking them yourself, a new ETF just launched last week, ticker symbol TAN, which holds most names of interest in the sector.
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4/22/2008 4:42:45 AM
pacel5
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"global_ronin" wrote:
If you want to pick up a basket of solar names instead of picking them yourself, a new ETF just launched last week, ticker symbol TAN, which holds most names of interest in the sector.
thanks global!! I hope they come with a new one for shipping stocks too...
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4/23/2008 8:27:18 PM
global_ronin
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This is what's currently in TAN, it's supposed to be rebalanced quarterly. One nice thing is there is a decent amount of international exposure, vs just US-traded issues.
First Solar (FSLR): 8.87%
Renewable Energy: 8.25%
Q-Cells: 6.65%
Suntech Power (STP): 6.32%
Solarworld: 5.51%
JA Solar (JASO): 5.39%
Yingli Green Energy (YGE): 4.81%
Sunpower (SPWR): 4.73%
LDK Solar (LDK): 4.55%
Memc Electronic Materials (WFR):4.45%
Solaria Energia Y Medio Ambiente: 3.63%
Centrotherm Photovoltaics: 3.44%
Trina Solar (TSL): 3.27%
Energy Conversion Devices (ENER): 3.25%
Ersol Solar Energy: 3.14%
Solarfun Power (SOLF): 3.03%
Canadian Solar (CSIQ): 2.85%
Solon Ag Fuer Solartechnik: 2.78%
Evergreen Solar (ESLR): 2.75%
Meyer Burger Technology: 2.43%
Roth & Rau: 2.17%
Conergy: 2.09%
Manz Automation: 2.09%
China Sunergy (CSUN): 1.94%
Emcore (EMKR): 1.60%
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4/23/2008 8:54:37 PM
global_ronin
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Yesterday (Earth Day) there was another new solar ETF launched, KWT.
Similar to TAN, but based on a different index and a little less international.
Q-Cells AG eiQCE 10.90%
First Solar Inc. FSLR 10.65%
Renewable Energy Corp. ASA REC 10.63%
SolarWorld AG eiSWV 9.80%
JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. ADS JASO 5.32%
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. ADS YGE 5.07%
Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. ADS STP 4.99%
SunPower Corp. Cl A SPWR 4.56%
LDK Solar Co. Ltd. ADS LDK 4.39%
Energy Conversion Devices Inc. ENER 4.20%
Trina Solar Ltd. ADS TSL 4.03%
Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente S.A. eDSLR 3.65%
Evergreen Solar Inc. ESLR 3.64%
Solon AG fuer Solartechnik eiSOO1 3.32%
ErSol Solar Energy AG eiES6 2.78%
Solar Millennium AG eiS2M 2.44%
Conergy AG eiCGY 1.94%
Phoenix Solar AG eiPS4 1.81%
Canadian Solar Inc. CSIQ 1.30%
ARISE Technologies Corp. TAPV 1.08%
China Sunergy Co. Ltd. ADS CSUN 0.73%
Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. ADS SOLF 0.66%
Solar-Fabrik AG eiSFX 0.53%
Sunways AG eiSWW 0.44%
Spire Corp. SPIR 0.41%
Centrosolar Group AG eiC3O 0.39%
DayStar Technologies Inc. DSTI 0.35%
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4/23/2008 9:29:06 PM
pacel5
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when there is ton of ETFs coming up in a same sector it means we are nearing a short term top... thanks for the information though! Iwill check that ETF aswell
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4/24/2008 3:15:12 AM
global_ronin
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:ec678cd993 wrote:
when there is ton of ETFs coming up in a same sector it means we are nearing a short term top... thanks for the information though! Iwill check that ETF aswell[/quote:ec678cd993]
Agree. I'm net short solar this week.
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4/24/2008 3:31:59 AM
pacel5
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"global_ronin" wrote:
:579a0ca276 wrote: when there is ton of ETFs coming up in a same sector it means we are nearing a short term top... thanks for the information though! Iwill check that ETF aswell[/quote:579a0ca276]
Agree. I'm net short solar this week. All commodities stocks are extended. Tomorrow morning POT reports.. yet it was down today... tomorrow I think it will sell more.
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4/25/2008 5:47:03 AM
global_ronin
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:ae1077162a wrote:
All commodities stocks are extended. Tomorrow morning POT reports.. yet it was down today... tomorrow I think it will sell more.[/quote:ae1077162a]
All of ag/chem got beat up today, after the huge run and dollar strength taking down commodities. I like the long term growth thesis, I'm holding some MOO (ag ETF) hedged with covered calls in position trading account, although I have also been trading POT MOS etc on shorter time frames.
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5/1/2008 3:56:55 AM
pacel5
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are you still short in ag stocks? Today the bleeding stop for that sector
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5/2/2008 3:37:10 AM
global_ronin
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:f3dddf0cd1 wrote:
are you still short in ag stocks? Today the bleeding stop for that sector[/quote:f3dddf0cd1]
I have been in and out of POT and MOS short, I think Dutch and I both got most of the same POT short trade today.
I also closed out the MOO position earlier this week. Basically gone into day trade / short term trade mode in ag/chem until the dust settles.
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5/2/2008 4:55:45 AM
pacel5
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"global_ronin" wrote:
:9c42edbda7 wrote: are you still short in ag stocks? Today the bleeding stop for that sector[/quote:9c42edbda7]
I have been in and out of POT and MOS short, I think Dutch and I both got most of the same POT short trade today.
I also closed out the MOO position earlier this week. Basically gone into day trade / short term trade mode in ag/chem until the dust settles. AG stocks getting crushed... some getting too overbought
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1/11/2009 4:37:44 PM
turkeyburger
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could solar stocks be coming back to life? Check out FSLR. its back above its 30EMA and 50MA and looking like its going from stage 1 to stage 2.
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