9/1/2010 9:57:30 AM
SM
Posts: 30
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edited by SM on 9/13/2010
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9/1/2010 11:39:37 AM
SM
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9/1/2010 3:23:49 PM
SM
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Today we broke above 1060-1065 and now officially broke this most recent descending channel to the upside. This is 4th time this year we've broken this type of pattern and it has led to a nice upside move. Where it leads to you never know, but you might as well put together a plan before hand and be on the right side of the trade the day it happens.
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9/1/2010 3:46:30 PM
SM
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The best way to make money in this market these days has been to watch the short term or intermediate term trend. Define all the ascending channels/trends and once they break you get out and short. Then define the descending channels/trends and when they break cover and get long.
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9/1/2010 3:49:20 PM
SM
Posts: 30
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I attached the charts above to shows you nine different channels since the beginning of the year. Try not to get dizzy because it is hard to see, but you will see nine green circles that show you when you had an action area or a day to switch quick, from long to flat or short, or from short to flat or long, all depending on how quick and nimble you are. As of now, we held 1040 again and have short term support in this area once again. We now have a descending trend or channel that will be challenged on the open today. If we hold above 1055-1060 today, we will see more of a squeeze. Some leaders are holding well, and held lower range with some even breaking out without the market in a confirmed rally. Big resistance comes in at the 1077-1082 area.
If you look at the year over year action, this was supposed to be a consolidation year, a year that digests the big 60%-70% or so move off the 2008 lows. Trade the short term trends, rotate both long and short through sectors as the market digests the big move off the 2008 bottom. That's exactly whats been going on!
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9/1/2010 11:34:01 PM
TheScoop
Posts: 106
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This is GREAT ADVICE FOR ANY NEWBIES OUT THERE, AS WELL AS A REMINDER FOR THE MORE EXPERIENCED ONES
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9/2/2010 3:09:20 PM
SM
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9/2/2010 4:07:44 PM
SM
Posts: 30
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Nice action today in the last 30min of of trade.
The next resistance is 1090-1092 which we are right on. then 1100.
For most traders is was a sit, wait and see day after yesterday gap up. It was a trend up day. 1040-1050 area in the /es and SPX is behind us and many traders feel more comfortable holding for a larger move.
All eyes are on tomorrow's August jobs report. I think there's a decent chance we handily beat the current estimates for job losses right now. According to Briefing. com consensus expectations are for a loss of 120,000 jobs. Again, this is just speculation but the ISM data yesterday showed the Employment Index at 60.4, the highest in nearly 30 years. The ISM states that: "An Employment Index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment." The last three months of ISM employment data (July, June and May) have showed the index at 58.6, 57.8 and 59.8, respectively. Manufacturing gains last month totaled 36,000 to round out 183,000 additions since December 2009. Perhaps we see some strong growth in manufacturing hiring?
Anyways, I have no idea really, just postulating. I'll be long into the announcement (from yesterday) and will likely view any selling as a buying opportunity unless the report gets me to believe risk is still too high and I'm too early on this next move up / break out from the above charts / channel.
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9/3/2010 11:34:38 AM
SM
Posts: 30
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Lots of action this week.
For today, I would not get excited or initiate new positions into the third up day into big resistance. The zone to watch is the 1104-1107 area.
Prudent traders took some profits into the emotional up gap, and some quick traders shorted for a profitable morning move into that zone. It would be nice for the markets to settle out next week and hold higher. This will create new pivot points for great momentum trades.
Traders, relax this holiday weekend and get some rest. It was a great week this week. Rest up. You will need it. Get ready for a very busy September.
edited by SM on 9/3/2010
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9/3/2010 11:41:48 AM
SM
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9/4/2010 1:45:32 PM
SM
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Major indices are short-term overbought and are now right at key resistance from the declining tops line from back in April.
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9/7/2010 6:08:49 PM
SM
Posts: 30
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With the market quite extended and at key resistance, a pullback was to be expected, and that's what we got today. Cash started the day only slightly lower but sold off further in the first half hour of trading. They moved sideways from there through lunch and into the afternoon, but fell a bit further after 2:00 PM EST and finished near their lows for the day. Volume, however, looks to be a good bit lower so that is a positive(at least on the S&P).
Technically, (so far) no real damage was done from what I can see today, a pullback here is normal and very healthy. A gap up and further gains were probably the worst thing that could have happened today in terms of this rally lasting a long time. Today's pullback (which could go a few more days) will allow the market to catch its breath and regain the necessary strength it will need to climb over its declining tops from April.
Key support now rests around 1080 for the S&P where both the 50 day and 9 day moving averages are converging. For the Nasdaq, the 50 day is a bit above 2200 and that level holding would be very bullish. It may not happen, however, and a pullback to the short-term moving averages around 2185 would likely still be OK in the grand scheme of things. Much further than that and maybe the outlook changes a bit. As of now, like Oscar, I am bullish long-term got 2010. I am look to enter long term opportunities on the December /ES contracts as well as the Dec 10 and March 11 call options on the /ES as they present themselves over the next few days. I second Oscar's year end out look on the S&P (/es) 1300.
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9/8/2010 6:10:11 PM
SM
Posts: 30
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The market filled Friday's gap, which was healthy to relieve some of the overbought condition. The real key, though, was that market leading stocks did not join in the pull-in and held up well. This was a bullish sign. We now have a nice high level consolidation (Bull Flag) around 1091 with resistance at 1104-1107. A close above that 1104-1107 level opens up the door for a move to 1128-1132.
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9/9/2010 8:11:19 PM
SM
Posts: 30
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We saw another up day today on Wall Street, but it was not a very bullish day, as stocks started higher after the weekly job claims and faded quickly from there. The opening gap took the /ES and /NQ above their declining tops line but the fade took them both back down to those lines by the close and filled their gaps. Volume looks to be lighter which is not what I would want to see. Overall, I am still of the belief that further pullback here would be a good thing, and I cringed when I saw the market gap up today. We still have a nice high level consolidation (Bull Flag) around 1095 with resistance at 1107. A close above that 1107 level opens up the door for a move to 1128-1132.
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9/10/2010 1:31:11 PM
SM
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We saw another up session today on Wall Street, but with volume coming in low once again, nothing really important happened. Hopefully trading volume will increase in earnest starting next week. I maintain my belief that the market needs to consolidate if it is going to rally strong through September, but right now we are grinding just slightly higher instead of consolidating. Perhaps this is one of those times we rest as we move slightly higher (happened a lot back in '09) but we'll just have to see. The numbers and the market overall remain bullish and so I will be focused on the long side for swings in the /es and /nq. But if markets decide to pull in some, I will be shorting intra-day scalps. The charts right now looks like we need to rest before moving higher. A light pullback would help to lengthen this rally significantly in my opinion.
edited by SM on 9/10/2010
edited by SM on 9/10/2010
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9/13/2010 6:28:06 PM
SM
Posts: 30
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Since the market gapped above 1060-1065 on September 1st and confirmed a new potential up move, we've seen very constructive action.
Another great day today on Wall Street, as stocks started higher from the get-go and gave little back throughout the session. The S&P pulled back midday but still was able to climb in the final hour to close near its highs for the day. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, led the way with gains of almost 2% after breaking to new intraday highs in the final hour of trading. Volume was heavier across the board. Technically, after today the major indices have now clearly broken above their declining tops lines from April and also took back their 200 day moving averages. Both the S&P and Nasdaq are now approaching more resistance from their June and August highs around 1130 and 2310 respectively. It is going to be interesting to see what happens here, as we are very extended. The McClellan Oscillator closed around +242 today and is right in the area it was back in mid-June when the market pulled back and the beginning of August when the market pulled back. We'll see what tomorrow bring - it is possible we could be setting up for a Feb-Apr type move where we just keep grinding higher without any rest. We've been in a range now for about four months and since we're at the top of that range, I think the chances are just as good that the range continues. I am not bearish longer-term - actually I am hopeful we can continue to rally. However, if this rally is to be a long-term one and we are to break out of this range, these recent gains needs digested and stocks need to pullback to setup new buy points. That's my opinion, and for now, I'm sticking to it.
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9/14/2010 5:52:52 PM
SM
Posts: 30
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A choppy day today on Wall Street, as stocks started the day lower, quickly bounced up, but could not get through key resistance and pulled back into the close. The Nasdaq was up slightly while the S&P was down just slightly - overall a flat day. Volume was up slightly. Another three or four days like today would be absolutely perfect.
Technically, the major indices are RIGHT at resistance and we are at a very interesting juncture here. Back in July, the market rose up to this level and then moved sideways for about a week in bullish fashion. The rise up was different then, as the indices had two short pullbacks as they rose, as opposed to this straight shot up we've seen for the past week or so. Some sideways action like we saw back then would be the best possible outcome right now for this market. I don't know if we will get it, and even if it does happen, it doesn't mean we will continue to move higher (see early August), but it would help. I still see too many stocks that are very extended and wedging higher. This is not a time I feel comfortable going long the /es as swing trade.
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9/15/2010 5:51:27 PM
SM
Posts: 30
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The S&P's have been acting very well, and today's action adds to that feeling. The /ES gave the bulls slight pause this morning with a small gap down but managed to march higher throughout the day and close on the day's high up 0.35%, retesting yesterday's highs of this almost 3-week rally in the market. The /ES have been trading in a tight, 10-handle range between 1110 and 1120 for a third day now. September 1st you had your gap and go above 1060-1065. The week of Sept 7th the market consolidated above 1090-1092 and leaders acted well, showing commitment to the first up move. So far this week we've held this new upper level above 1112-1115 and dips are still being bought. Rotation has been impressive. The longer we hold here, the bigger the chance for a move through 1128-1132, and the next spot will be 1138-1142, and then perhaps a huge one at 1160. It's been a very methodical strategic trade. Keep watching the tape and not the headlines. I have very little to add other than this thought, I have been mentally prepared for a pull-in around this level but it almost seems as though one may not come.
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9/16/2010 6:35:57 PM
SM
Posts: 30
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A slow and choppy day today with another gap down that was bought in the afternoon to finish basically flat for the session with a range even tighter that the previous couple sessions. The S&P traded within a 6-handle range but again showed a bullish bias closing on the highs of the day and near the top of the range. Volume looks like it was ridiculously low today compared to the past few sessions. Technically, the charts are diverging here a bit as both the S&P and Russell 2000 have consolidated slightly the past few sessions and look good to me. I have been harping on the need for the market to digest their recent move higher if this rally is going to last a while, and I think those two indices have done that for the most part here. That's not to say further consolidation would hurt, but who knows if we'll get it. The last three session have worked off some of the overbought condition in these two indices. A breakout is a real possibility soon based on the way the charts look. This has been a very healthy pause in the market as the initial leaders like NFLX, CRM, VMW and PCLN absorbed some needed profit-taking. AAPL and AMZN refuse to take a rest. (Take note that the reason I talk about stocks in this 'futures forum' is that the /ES is the S&P and the S&P are lead by stocks. That is why I track stocks as indicators as well when trading the /ES and let me tell you, it has helped me greatly.) After hours earnings reports from ORCL and RIMM blew away the Street and both stocks are rallying in the post market.
I also follow copper. Copper has been an excellent leading indicator although I have lessened my focus on it somewhat recently. The equity market has some "catch-up" room where it could conceivably rally with copper taking a rest. Copper pushed through $3.50 today before seeing some selling. A move over $3.53 would make me significantly more bullish on equities. 
Tomorrow is options expiration and lately those sessions have been quiet. A quiet day tomorrow would be very good for the market in my opinion. If the /ES and /TF continue to consolidate and the /NQ takes at least a short break, the market is definitely set up for higher prices. Let's see if it happens.
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9/26/2010 8:38:14 PM
SM
Posts: 30
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