Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Etc...
4/24/2009 11:55:22 AM
77
Posts: 0
|
on a weekly chart a relentless down channel
looking at USO, could be forming inverted head and shoulders
neckline up over 30
crude oil strong seasonal up for june as build for summer driving season
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
4/29/2009 5:33:42 PM
kiwifx
Posts: 0
|
Check out monthly charts of NG/CL or even better, NG/GC. There must be immense forces to the upside about to be unleashed on Nat Gas.
Am taking today's sell off us a gift.
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
5/1/2009 11:11:51 PM
77
Posts: 0
|
you got a good finish to the week!
unfortunately i've seen the same bullish NG posts every week around the chat blogs since last sept when it was 7,
and NG just has been relentlessly lower
in NG the old adage for bottom callers 'call it early and call it often' has worked in spades
good luck kiwifx, may it be you to finally get the bottom
8)
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
6/4/2009 1:23:28 PM
Posts:
|
With short term top possibly in on crude, traders need to look closer at natural gas. Seems to have a lot more room to play the bullish side. Thursdays pivot point is 3.87 if we get above the pivot and the SP is above 930 with the dollar slipping could be a great day trade.
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
6/4/2009 7:27:02 PM
Vinny
Posts: 0
|
Thereâs no other commodity thatâs this cheap, battered and oversold. With oil at $69.28 per barrel and natural gas at $3.79 per MMBtu, we currently have an oil to natural gas ratio of about 18. Historically, the oil to natural gas ratio has always returned to 6 and since 2000 it has averaged 8
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
6/26/2009 11:53:26 AM
alexmm
Posts: 0
|
NGN9 had a low on 4/27 then a lower low of 3.395 on 4/30. Factual supply and demand numbers (weekly build vs. 5 year avg) don't support higher prices. Geopolitics are cautiously neutral. What's going on is NG like crude is showing correlation to the US$. If the US$ falls below the lows set on 6/02 and 6/03 and the front month NG shows some strength by staying above 3.4 then I'll continue to buy Oct NG on dips below 4 and I'll consider Dec NG if I can buy it below 5 before Oct expires.
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
6/26/2009 12:04:18 PM
alexmm
Posts: 0
|
"77" wrote:
...
in NG the old adage for bottom callers 'call it early and call it often' has worked in spades
...
Trying to buy the bottom is really buying each and every bottom then doing a lot of quick givebacks sometimes taking gains or losses (hopefully small) until in retrospect you learn that you bought the low. This game is all the more difficult because these lows (or highs) don't always occur during the day session.
The market often gives us a second chance, probably because initiative (breakout) traders want to try to go lower (or higher). The volume and duration of those second attempts is my clue to whether, for the time being, the low (or high) has been put in.
Always be open to changing your opinion when new facts present themselves. Otherwise you had better hedge your opinions, and also hedge your hedges.
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
7/1/2009 6:25:05 AM
yungrader
Posts: 0
|
With these commodities... ng being so low when we get our hyper inflation spike these prices will look like penny stocks when u look back... wirte that down
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
7/14/2009 2:30:43 PM
alexmm
Posts: 0
|
need math help...
What number of shares of UNG (a nat gas ETF) is equivalent to the mini or full-sized nat gas contract?
QG is the nymex mini nat-gas, the specs say:
trading unit: 2,500 million British thermal units (mmBtu).
pricing: $0.005 (0.5¢) per mmBtu ($12.50 per contract).
So if QG is trading at 3.4, does that mean 1 lot is worth 3.4 * 2500 / ( 0.5 ) = $17,000 ?
And UNG is about $12.5/share so 1360 shares would be $17k ?
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
8/5/2009 4:36:48 PM
alexmm
Posts: 0
|
I wonder what percentage of nat gas futures are tied up with the "UNG" ETF?
I think a lot of stock traders are underwater from the 15-16 level and with the front month of NO/XG futures finally moving above $4 I think there will be a lot of redemptions of UNG when traders get their first chance in months to get out for even.
the fundamentals (supply, demand) don't support higher prices, so if the equity markets break (ES/YM go down) then I'd expect to see the futures back in the 3.15-3.5 levels and UNG back around its $12 lows with a lot of unhappy faces.
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
9/2/2009 3:41:08 AM
alexmm
Posts: 0
|
"alexmm" wrote:
... so if the equity markets break (ES/YM go down) then I'd expect to see the futures back in the 3.15-3.5 levels and UNG back around its $12 lows with a lot of unhappy faces.
haha, Oct-NG traded 2.82 and UNG closed at 10.27.I was wrong. I had working orders to buy QG - I canceled them; fading this market could be bad for my health. Everything but geopolitics is bearish at the moment.
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
10/15/2009 1:58:00 PM
vmcd62
Posts: 7
|
What's everyone's take on buying NG right now in a longer term trade?
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|
12/2/2009 8:48:50 AM
alexmm
Posts: 0
|
"vmcd62" wrote:
What's everyone's take on buying NG right now in a longer term trade?
The COT report shows commercials are near their highest net long positions for the past 5 years. When the net commercials line goes below zero it will signal a new bull rally for nat gas.
Nat Gas storage is currently near an all time high. However the demand can be dramatically altered by changes in domestic policy (e.g. EPA regulations for dual fuel power plants forcing shifts to NG).
The timeframe could be two or three years, too long for futures IMHO. I'd look for stock plays in NG producers with large storage holdings. I don't know if LEAPS would be appropriate.
|
|
• permalink
• reply with quote
|