OMNI Trading Academy :: Forum

1/18/2012 2:25:46 AM Topic: Tobacco and lighter product Co Swedish Match henning1 Posts: 1	Hello, To me this is a stock trending in a positive way. But is it a right time to increase now? What do you get out of the chart? " border="0"> Best regards Henning
1/3/2012 9:54:34 AM Topic: Three month chart of S&P BobLewisPhoto Posts: 1	I'm a real novice so I'm interested to know if others agree that three month chart of S&P looks like inverse head and shoulder. Also we are currently near top of range, above 200 moving average and just broke out of three month apex. Looks bullish, no? I'm taking a slightly longer term view, not really trading day by day in most cases. Thinking to wait for pullback and hopefully buy near 200 ma
12/26/2011 10:00:02 PM Topic: UTIL Utilities Negative Divergence Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	SDP Weekly Chart: SDP is a thinly-traded inverse ETF for the utilities so it moves up if the utes move down. Note the collapse shown by last weeks' red candle as the utilitites moved higher. The green wedge and positive divergence was highlighted as November began and the rocket launch followed as expected. Price has now returned lower forming the purple falling wedge and postive divergence so it is time for another launch. The MACD histogram has now joined the postive divergence party as well. Lots of buyers entered in November as the utes received their negative divergence spank down as shown by the large volume candle. Thus, there are many holders of SDP now in the 34-38 zone. After the pop, some traders stuck around too long, forgetting to take their money at the window and gittin' out of Dodge while the gittin' was good. So when price comes back up, those traders, may be inclined to exit their positions between 34-36 so that serves as a handy initial target, then, after that, SDP would come back down again to continue to base, then another move up. Projection is for SDP to move sideways to sdieways up for the weeks and months to come as the utilities (UTIL, XLU) move sideways to sideways down.
12/26/2011 9:58:42 PM Topic: UTIL Utilities Negative Divergence Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	The blue negative divergence resulted in a smack down as was forecasted in october; price dropped to the lower rail of the upward-sloping channel. Price then popped back up off the lower rail over the last month to punch out a higher high and touch the top rail of the channel again. This results in another rising wedge and negative divergence (red). This is a significant top forming. The momo was strong last week so that type of move will need to move across in a stutter step, M top type movement, and then roll over as the weeks and months tick by. For this near term red wedge, however, the spank down is needed now. Note the buying volume for last weeks huge move was the least since late summer making the move unenthusiastic. For this last trading week of the year, the 440 level is critical. Market bulls will enjoy broad index buoyancy as long as price stays above 440. If 440 is lost, the broad markets will sell off. The 50-week MA represents where the broad markets would go into free fall, 428-430, but at 463 now, the utes are comfortably above the two danger levels (neon green lines) and this worry is not currently on the table. Things can change quickly, however. Projection is for a pull back now due to the red negative divergence, then a continued topping action thru 440-470 with sideways to sideways lower prices moving forward. Would not be surprising to see this 465 area as the long-term high.
12/26/2011 9:56:22 PM Topic: RTH Retail Sector Negative Divergence Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	SCC Ultrashort Consumer Weekly Chart Oversold Falling Wedge Positive Divergence Here's a quick look at an ongoing SCC chart which is a double retail inverse ETF. Remember we rode the green falling wedge pop to glory a month ago? Price pulled back again and the positive divergence is ready to bounce price again. SCC is on the launch pad fueling up. Sometimes they blow up on the launch pad, but typically, like in November, the launch is beautiful. Projection is a nice positive divergence launch in SCC to occur now as the retail sector receives its negative divergence spank down. SCC is expected to move sideways to sideways up for the weeks and months to come. The current levels may serve as a head for an inverted H&S that wil need a right shoulder as time ticks by.
12/26/2011 9:53:11 PM Topic: RTH Retail Sector Negative Divergence Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	Time for another spank down. RTH retail sector showing another nasty set up. The late October negative divergence set-up was a great short as RTH received its spank down. And now, with firm negative divergence in place (blue lines), overbot conditions that will need to be remedied, and the ominous rising wedge, it is once again time for retail to receive its punishment. The three busiest shopping days of the year are Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), the Saturday before Christmas and today, and the day after Christmas. All three are history until next year. Retail typically tops in December. And with this current chart set up, it is time to play Taps again. One sliver of bull hope is the 20 MA sneaking back above the 50 MA so monitor this closely. Also the RSI 50% level. Projection is a negative divergence smack down to occur. Retail is topping and rolling over. Expect sideways to sideways lower prices for weeks and months to come. Inverses such as SZK, SCC and dangerous RETS, and shorting XRT, or shorting individual retail names are all possibilties moving forward. Due diligence is required. The smack down will probably be similar to November where RTH fell from 113 to 106 (-6%) within two weeks.
12/26/2011 9:51:00 PM Topic: SOX Semi's Chart Sideways Symmetrical Triangle Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	SOX, semiconductors, show a sideways symmetrical triangle that has to make a decision now, there is no more room to move inside the triangle. And no one has to wait long. SOX will decide at the opening bell in the morning. Keystoen's proprietary algo is fixated on SOX 368.60. As Friday's drama played out, the end of day print is none other than 368.60. This is significant since if the markets want to venture higher, they can only do it if the SOX now strengthens by moving above 368.60. If the market bears want to step in and spank the indexes down from this Santa Claus rally, they must push the SOX under 368.60 when the bell rings tomorrow morning. Whichever way the SOX goes, so goes the broad markets. The vertical side of the sideways triangle is 80 or 90 points so whichever way price breaks it will want to move that amount of points in the direction it chooses. Upwards would target a matching price high at 460-470. Downwards would target 280-300. This is high drama. Even the 200 week MA is stone cold flat not tipping its preference for bull or bear. The 20 week under the 50 week is very bearish. Watch price versus the 20 week MA and also the RSI and stochastics 50% levels to provide clues on SOX direction which, in turn, will signify broad market direction. With this type of chart neither long or short is desired, there are better sector set ups to play (utes, retail, energy, etc..) as described on the site. The SOX 368.60 level is the top market item to watch at 9:30 AM tomorrow since it will dictate broad market direction.
12/20/2011 6:57:33 PM Topic: SSEC Shanghai China Weekly Chart Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	SSEC Shanghai China Weekly Chart Sideways Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown Falling Wedge Oversold Positive Divergence: China has been beaten hard. The blue sideways triangle broke down and targets the 1600-1800 range in the future. The downward channel shown by the thin black lines would target those lower numbers in 2012 or 2013, so it looks like China will be hurting for a long time. The 20 wek MA is under the 50 MA, very bearish, and the 200 week MA is sloping negatively, very bearish. Critical support at 2300 needed to hold for the bulls but price collpased thru like a hot knife thru butter. All that negativity aside, price has now been beaten to oversold levels. A falling wedge and positive divergence across all indicators (pink lines) says price wants to bounce. Price is also at the bottom of that black channel and will want to bounce off the lower rail. The teal box for the ADX shows that the down move is an extremely strong trending down move, thus, after a relief bounce countertrend rally occurs, the downside will begin again. The critical 2300 was never back kissed after it failed so the projection is for price to bounce here with China receiving a relief bounce, up to 2300, even 2400 is in play to test the top rail of the black channel, then the long term downtrend should resume. A gap fill is needed at 2000 which offers itself as a future target. China will be sick for a long time, likely into 2013, but in this near term time frame it is time for a bounce.
12/19/2011 8:45:11 AM Topic: MUB Municipal Bond Fund forms Significant Top Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	MUB charts are updated thru 12/19/11 and placed under the Bond Thread. Significant top occurring now, from September thru now, this is the view from the top.
12/19/2011 8:43:14 AM Topic: CUR Neuralstem Daily Chart Positive Divergence Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	CUR Neuralstem Daily Chart Positive Divergence: The chart remains favorable to a sustained up move beginning. The purple lines over the last couple weeks display a long and strong profile. The positive divergence is a powerful bullish force. Price is on the launch pad. The first expectation would be for price to overtake the 20 MA at 1.07 and then move higher. 1.10 resistance serves as an intial target but much more upside is expected for the weeks and months ahead. Use the RSI, stochastics and money flow 50% levels to signal the all-clear and good times ahead. Note the low one dollar price makes this a speculative penny stock, thinly traded and prone to wild moves not for the faint of heart. In addition, in these overall secular bearish markets, small caps will tend to get beaten harder than large caps, the opposite of what happens during a long-term good-time market rally, thus, any long play for spec stocks are very dangerous and require close attention currently. Little CUR should show signs of life now, perhaps this week will kick off the sustained upside coming. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
12/18/2011 9:09:47 PM Topic: LIBOR3 London Interbank 3-Month Rate Chart Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	LIBOR3 London Interbank 3-Month Daily Chart Now at 2009 Levels: This should receive attention from the central bankers. The Libor is now at levels not seen in two and one-half years. Anxiety in the financial system is increasing. Libor rate keeps creeping upwards. Think of this chart as a fear gauge. Note the high fear during the 2008 and early 2009 market crash and Lehman bankruptcy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
12/18/2011 9:07:28 PM Topic: MUB Municipal Bond Fund Charts -- Muni's Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	MUB Municipal Bonds Daily Chart Rising Wedge Overbot Negative Divergence: Muni daily chart shows the September top that was previously highlighted for a pull back due to the rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence. Price received a spank down but the 50 day MA support held. In December, price has now drifted upwards to take out the September highs. Note the same negative divergence and spank down conditions exist so price will pull back. The RSI and MACD line have a little bit of short term momo that will need burned off, so some M Top action would be in order as price rolls over again. The surprising move up over the last month has to be in part or mainly due to money finding a place to hide from the Europe turmoil. As the wicked negative divergence shows, this is no place to hide. The pink ascending triangle already hit the target at this current price. The neon green triangle is in play but do not hold your breath for the 108's. The chart is ugly. Projection is sideways to sideways down from here, potential M Top action moving forward. Highly likely that this is a significant price high that may not be seen again for weeks and months. The analogy of picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer comes to mind. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade based on this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
12/18/2011 9:05:36 PM Topic: MUB Municipal Bond Fund Charts -- Muni's Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	MUB Municipal Bonds Weekly Chart Rising Wedge overbot Negative Divergence: Weekly chart shows a smaller rising wedge (blue) within a larger rising wedge (red). Note the firm negative divergence that remains in place as shown by the red and blue lines, as well as overbot conditions with the rising wedges. Nasty chart. The daily chart is in agreement as well so price is about to receive another serious slapdown like September. Note the recent buying volume does not surpass the average of the previous levels over the last year further indicating that buying interest is waning at these levels. Last week's candle is a hanging man. The 20 week MA held after the September selloff so that requres watching moving forward. The RSI has a hair more strength over the last three months which means a slight sideways stutter step may occur over the next couple weeks, any second move up for price, however, consider it a gift, that would be the last chance to jump ship. MUB is fun to follow to note the progress of Meredith Whitney's call on the muni market in the Fall of 2010 on 60 Minutes at the 102.5 price. Thus, the intial call was fantastic as muni's rode the down escalator into 2011 but price recovered all the way thru this year. Meredith's call became incorrect this summer of 2011, and the muni market bulls have been correct for the last half year. Price should easily work back down towards 102.5 during 2012, even lower, perhaps back down into the 90's, so Meredith should have the last laugh, although her timing will be off by a year. Right now would have been the perfect time for Meredith to make the call. Projection is for price to receive a spank down now and move sideways to sideways lower for the forseeable future. This is a significant top that may not be seen for weeks, months, perhaps years. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade based on this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
12/18/2011 9:03:08 PM Topic: SPX Weekly Chart 3-Year Channel Failure Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	SPX Weekly Chart 3-Year Upward-Sloping Channel Failure: Looks like price may have finally given up the ghost permanently losing the 3 year channel. Price has refused to give up for five months but now the bottom rail of the channel and the 50 week MA are forming a strong confluence that serves as a sturdy resistance ceiling. Price breaking under the 20 MA would be very bearish. The 20 week MA under the 50 MA is already very bearish. The 200 week MA sloping negatively is long term bearish. Watch the RSI and money flow 50% levels for clues on direction. Projection remains as sideways to sideways down for the foreseeable future. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
12/18/2011 8:59:46 PM Topic: BTU Peabody Energy Weekly Chart Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	BTU Peabody Energy Weekly Chart Positive Divergence: Very nice positive divergence in place (white lines) over the last two months so price will finally bounce. A long entry at 32.80-32.98 is attractive, if 32.80 is lost wait for 32.20's to enter. High probability for a bounce from here right now. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
12/18/2011 8:56:57 PM Topic: UNG Natty Gas Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	UNG charts remain positively diverged. Perhaps one cold spell is all it will take to trigger in a wild upside spike move.
12/18/2011 8:55:00 PM Topic: POT Potash Weekly Chart Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	POT Potash Weekly Chart Falling Wedge Oversold Positive Divergence H&S Gaps: POT is ready for a bounce. The daily chart is in postitive divergence now so price wants to pop. This weekly chart shows the green falling wedge, overbot conditions and positively diverged RSI, MACD histogram and stochastics that reinforce the daily chart and give a bounce in price some strong street cred. Note the pesky MACD line and money flow, however, the skunks at the garden party, they want to see another rmatching or lower low in price after price bounces. At that point in time all the indicators should be positively diverged to allow a more sustainable sideways move well into 2012. Note the pink H&S pattern with a head at 62, neck at 50 which targets 38, or, a head at 63, neck at 50 which targets 37. The 37-38 level is sturdy horizontal support as well. Projection is for price to bounce upwards now (possibly to test the 200 MA at 43.50 from underneath) but then price will leak lower again to satisfy the H&S targets at 37-38 and then move sideways to sideways up as 2012 gets underway. As POT moves along in the new year, however, the gaps below will prove to be a magnet as well as the sideways ranges of 28-42 and 28-38 for much of 2012. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.
11/24/2011 5:55:05 AM Topic: UNG Natty Gas Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	UNG Natural Gas Fund Weekly Chart: UNG weekly chart shows the long slide south. Keystone has liked UNG from September on so, as the ole trading wise crack says, if he liked it at 9-ish, he has to love it at 7-ish. This 7.80 is an attractive entry area. The chart shows positive divergence in the monthly timeframe, and closer in, over the last month, RSI, MACD histogram and stochastics are agreeable to see upside. MACD line and money flow, however, are a bit tempermental and at least want price to poke around in this area a wee bit longer. Projection is higher prices moving forward from here, 7.8-ish serving as a base, also a potential head for an inverted H&S that will need a right shoulder in the coming months. With the projected gluts in natty supply due to the success with shale gas, price has plummetted. Now the weather men, as if they are someone to listen to, say a mild winter is ahead which would futher provide pressure on price. Commodities are funny. Tomorrow you can wake up to lower estimates on supply since regulations against drilling are mounting, and environmental and safety concerns are hurting the fledgling shale gas industry. Couple that with a couple snow storms and natty will be jumping higher to welcome in the New Year.
11/24/2011 5:52:22 AM Topic: UNG Natty Gas Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	UNG Natural Gas Fund Daily Chart Falling Wedges Positive Divergence: UNG daily is very constructive for the upside. Each falling wedge and positive divergence resulted in a bounce. The red circles ushered in some trouble for natty since the lower indicators wanted to see a lower price. UNG is finally basing to head back up. Natty is Keystone's favorite commodity moving forward.
11/24/2011 5:44:15 AM Topic: SPX Sideways Symmetrical Triangle Keystone Speculator Posts: 29	Textbook sideways symmetrical triangle. The 1160 target area is achieved. The surprising aspect is that price never back kissed the lower rail of the triangle when it failed at 1240, and a fake-out move from the triangle never occurred either. Price simply collapsed thru the triangle and never looked back, tumbling an equal distance of the vertical base of the triangle, which provided the 1160 target, now achieved. Note the falling wedge in place now over the last 2 or 3 days, and positive divergence, which will bounce price moving forward.

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